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According to the Congressional Research Service, In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached 14.8%—the highest rate observed since data collection began in 1948. In July 2021, unemployment remained higher (5.4%) than it had been in February 2020 (3.5%).   This statement offers an example for which of the following concepts? 

Question 3: Stepwise Regression – 13 points For this question, use the unstandardized data (trainData).             a. Perform forward stepwise regression using BIC. Let the minimum model be the one with only an intercept, and the  maximum model to be model1. Display the model summary of your final model. Call it forward_model. (2 points) NOTE: For R, keep the max iteration of 1000 when running the step function. NOTE: For Python, keep the max iteration of 1000 when running the stepwise function.   Which variables were selected in the forward_model? Which regression coefficients are significant at the 99% confidence level in forward_model? (1.5 points) At which BIC value did the model cease selecting predictors, and what was the reason for this? (1.5 points) b. Perform forward-backward stepwise regression model using AIC, starting with intercept-only model. Call it both_model. (1 point) NOTE: For R, keep the max iteration of 1000 when running the step function. NOTE: For Python, keep the max iteration of 100 when running the stepwise function.   i) Which variables are selected in both_model? (1 point) ii) Are all the selected variables significant at 99% level? Explain the reason. (1.5 points) iii) If any variable is not significant at 99% level, why might it still be included? (1.5 points) c. Perform 2 Partial F-tests to compare the both_model (3b) with the full model (model1) and the forward model with model1. What is your interpretation at the 95% confidence level? (2 points) d. What is the difference in variable selection between forward, backward and forward-backward stepwise regresssion? (1 point)

 In terms of the economic policy environment, describe a policy that you would expect to be of more importance for Arlington than Fairfax. Show the data and explain why. Data can be found at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1srm4TgD3DJTEtzjc7q_x1cELM-6CGunUAkd7QVkokYo/edit?gid=2081048768#gid=2081048768 

Emergence management offices have to send out early warnings before a disaster. During the 2017 Northern California wildfires, many residents in peril did not receive the warnings because their mobile phones lost service as transmission towers and lines were destroyed amid the fire. The fire highlighted the inadequacies of the emergency warning system. Two months after the fires, the officials pushed for new safety protocols to improve the reliability and coverage of their early warning system. One of the attempts was to broaden the warnings to include some 53,000 landlines gleaned from AT&T.   Which of the following explains the policy failure in the 2017 wildfire?

Continuing on Q30,  in terms of the social policy environment, describe a policy that you would expect to be of more importance for Prince William than Arlington. Show the data and explain why.

Based on the Chapter on Policy Implementation, Failure and Learning, identify three major explanations for policy failure and provide one example for each explanation identified.

Imagine you are a member of a congressional committee tasked with designing a new policy to address environmental pollution. What are the key elements you should consider to inform the policy design? Describe three elements. 

How is the new policy “24/7 Sobriety” different from previous ones to deal with drunk driving? And describe the causal theory and assumptions of the new tool. 

Data from the Phase 3 randomized controlled trial demonstrates that people who received the COVID-19 booster shot show a vaccine efficacy of 95% when compared to those who did not receive a booster.   This statement offers an example for which of the following concepts?

The business cycle diagram below shows the cyclical movement of actual real GDP relative to potential real GDP over time for the nation of Galactica.