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Question set 1: (5pts) Answer ONE of the following questions…

Question set 1: (5pts) Answer ONE of the following questions below (be sure to indicate which question you are answering) NOTE: You can use the calculator and white board to ‘show your work’  within this exam if need to.      Suppose there is a 50% chance that you will have a pop quiz tomorrow morning in math class, and a 50% chance that you won’t. Should you (1) study for it or (2) not? Using a 1-5 scale (where 1=extremely undesirable and 5=extremely desirable) to indicate your utilities for the four possible outcomes (e.g., one possible outcome is you study for it and there is a pop quiz), calculate the answer to this question. You can use table function in the menu toolbar). Click on insert–>table You can also show your work by using the insert equation function.    The prevalence of Down syndrome in fetuses is 1% for pregnant women who are 40 years of age. Suppose that a widely used screening procedure gives a positive result in 60% of women who do have a baby with Down syndrome, and also in 10% of women who don’t actually have a baby with Down syndrome. What is the probability that a pregnant 40-year-old woman who tests positive actually has a baby with Down syndrome? Using a natural frequency diagram, please (a) calculate the answer to the question above (leaving it as a fraction is OK), and (b) explain why it is essential that base rates be taken into account in calculating the answer.  You can use table function in the menu toolbar). Click on insert–>table You can also show your work by using the insert equation function.