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The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month’s budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand “hits” (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: Strategy Cable Network Successful Failure Print $10 10 Mixed 4 14 Television 1 21   If she uses the maximin criterion, which advertising strategy will she use? (Variant of Class Example)

Compute the seasonal relative for quarter 1 for this data using the centered moving average method. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 2 6 10 3 2 6 4 5 9

An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week:             1          2          3          4          5 Requests:          20        22        18        21        22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using the following method:   Exponential smoothing with α=.30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast.

Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: Predicted Demand Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80 What is the MAD for F1? 

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

The range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff can be determined by:

Apple’s Citrus Fruit Farm ships boxed fruit anywhere in the world. Using the following information, a manager wants to forecast shipments for the first four months of next year. The monthly forecast equation being used is: where  = January of last year = Forecast of shipments for month The order of years is last year, this year, and next year. Answer the following question. Determine trend amounts (unseasonalized or deseasonalized shipments) for the first month of next year.

Below shows a company’s historical demand of 10 previous quarters.   Quarter Demand 1 14 2 18 3 35 4 46 1 28 2 36 3 60 4 71 1 45 2 54   A 4-period seasonality has been identified. Answer the following questions using Centered moving average method.   What is the seasonal relative for quarter 3?

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

University of Minnesota BOARD OF REGENTS POLICY Code of Conduct   Act Ethically and with Integrity. Ethical conduct is a fundamental expectation for every community member. In practicing and modeling ethical conduct, community members are expected to: act according to the highest ethical and professional standards of conduct; be personally accountable for individual actions; fulfill obligations owed to students, advisees, and colleagues; conscientiously meet University responsibilities; and communicate ethical standards of conduct through instruction and example. As a student of Decision Making in Operations class taught by Dr. Wenqing Zhang, I hereby certify that I will not discuss with any other students the contents and answers of this exam, and will make sure the exam is returned to the professor without any delay, in order to keep the examination process fair for everyone.  I certify this under the rules and regulations governing the Academic Integrity Policy of the University of Minnesota.   Have you read, understood and agreed upon this commitment statement?